Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Regions 1164 (N24W59),
1165 (S20W78), and 1166 (N11E12) produced M-class events during the
past 24 hours, all of which contain a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic
configuration. Region 1166 produced a M1/Sf observed at 07/1430Z
with an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 1164
produced a M3 at 07/2012Z with an associated Type II radio sweep and
a Tenflare that was in progress at this report time. The SOHO/LASCO
imagery observed a full halo CME (a further analysis is underway).
Images from the C2 first observed the CME at 07/1448Z while the C3
imagery first observed the event at 07/1518Z. The Penticton 10.7 cm
flux and the 90 day mean are estimated for today (07 March) due to
flare enhanced readings.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate on day one (08 March) with M-class events expected. Solar
activity for days two and three (09-10 March) are expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event as Regions 1165 and 1164 transit
around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (08-10
March).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 75/50/40
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 153
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01