Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares were
observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was a C9/2n flare
observed at 07/1543Z from Region 1499 (N15W09). This region
produced five other low level C-class flares during the period.
Region 1494 (S18W19) grew slightly and was also responsible for five
low level C-class flares during the period. These regions were
classied as Cai and Dso type groups, respectively, both with
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1497 (S21W44) decreased
in areal extent since yesterday, but remained the largest region on
the disk and was classified as a Dai type group with beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began at unsettled to active levels, decreasing
to quiet levels for the remainder of the period. The solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft decreased from 700 to 600 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/- 4nT while the total field remained around 4
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the forecast period at unsettled levels with a
chance for active conditons on day one (08 June) as coronal effects
wane and a weak CME from 05 June arrives. Quiet conditions are
expected on day two (09 June) followed by a return to unsettled
conditions with a chance for active periods on day three (10 June)
with the potential arrival of a CME from 06 June.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 128
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 017/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 007/008-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 30/15/30