Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1226 (S21W64) was the most active and produced the
largest event of the period, an M2/2N flare at 07/0641Z. Associated
with this event was a Type II radio sweep, a Type IV radio sweep, a
Tenflare of 720 sfu, and a full halo asymmetric CME with an
estimated plane of sky speed of 1155 km/s. Region 1226 had
previously produced only low level x-ray events and has lost most of
it spots and magnetic complexity after the M-flare. The other
regions on the disk remained stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (08-10 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
increased from a steady 400 km/s to around 500 km/s briefly and
decreased back to around 430 km/s. A 10 MeV and a 100 MeV proton
event, are currently in progress. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux began at 07/0820Z and reached a peak flux of 72.9 pfu at
07/1820Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux began at 07/0720Z and
reached a peak of 4.5 pfu at 07/1025Z. Both of these events are
associated with the M2/2N flare at 07/0641Z from Region 1226 and are
currently declining.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 June) and on the
beginning of day two (09 June). Midday on day two, active to minor
storm levels are expected as the CME, associated with today’s M2/2N
flare from Region 1226, becomes geoeffective. With the arrival of
this CME, there is a slight chance for major storm periods at high
latitudes. On day three (10 June), as the effects of the CME
continue, active levels, with chance for minor storm periods, are
also expected.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 99/99/50
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 096
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 096/094/094
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 005/005-020/025-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor storm 10/40/30
Major-severe storm 01/25/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor storm 10/45/35
Major-severe storm 01/30/25