Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W63) produced
an X1 at 06/2308Z along with several M-class flares. An associated
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2324Z, along with a 520
sfu Tenflare, Type II (est. speed 1771 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps. The bulk of the material appears to be directed southwest
and is not expected to cause significant activity. New Region 1520
(S15E54) was numbered today and produced an M1 event at 07/0828Z.
The region is considered an Fhc-type group with a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class activity for the next three days
(08-10 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
with an isolated minor storm period from 06/2100-2400Z due to an
extended period of southward Bz. A greater than 10 MeV Proton event
associated with yesterday’s X-class event began at 07/0400Z and
peaked at 25 pfu at 07/0745Z. The event was still in progress at the
time of this report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day one (08 July) due to
effects from the 04 July CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on day two (09 July) as effects subside. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on
day three (10 July) due to possible weak effects from the CME
associated with yesterday’s X-class event.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 50/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 158
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 160/155/145
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 017/025-012/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/15/20
Minor storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 55/25/25