Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1243 (N16W59) produced a C1 event at 07/0243Z. New Region 1245
(N15E58) was numbered overnight and is classified as a Cso-beta type
group. Both regions produced several B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (08-10 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (08 July). Quiet to unsettled
conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on
day two (09 July) due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS). Conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet on day three (10 July) as the effects from the CH HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 086
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 088/090/090
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 007/007-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/10
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/15
Minor storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/06/01