Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No x-ray flares were
observed during the past 24 hours. Region 1024 (S27W39) continued
to decay and activity from the region was significantly reduced.
The remainder of the disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region
1024.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (8 July). An increase to quiet to
unsettled is expected for day two (9 July) due to possible coronal
hole effects. Conditions should be predominately quiet for day
three (10 July).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 071
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 005/005-007/008-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/10
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01