Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest event of the period was a C2/Sf at 07/0007Z from
Region 1392 (S24W73). Region 1392 and 1393 (N16W30) both showed
growth in areal coverage and magnetic complexity. A CME was observed
in LASCO C2 imagery around 06/2125Z. After analysis,
this CME appears to a farsided event, thus not Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (08-10 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels for the next three
days (08-10 January).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 141
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 005/005-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01