Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 Jan 2003

SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 244 (S23W01)
produced an M1/1f event at 07/0750 UTC. Region 242 (S06W09) has
shown significant growth and is now at 340 millionths of penumbral
coverage with 36 spots. Four new regions were numbered today as
Region’s 248 (S11W41), 249 (S16E18), 250 (S27E79), and 251 (S14E81).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region’s 242 and 244 have potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active conditions
are possible on 10 January due to the effects from a recurrent
coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan

• Class M 40/40/40
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Jan 163
• Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 165/170/175
• 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 002/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 008/010-010/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/35
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01