Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N19W79) produced
several C-class x-ray events over the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels on day 1 (8 February). Activity
should decrease to very low levels on days 2-3 (9-10 February) after
Region 1410 rotates off the west limb of the solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes with an
isolated minor storm observed between 07/09-15Z at a high latitude
station in College, Alaska.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (8 February)
as the results of elevated solar wind speeds and intermittent
periods of negative Bz. Unsettled to active levels are again
expected due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on
days 2-3 (9-10 February).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 30/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 107
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 008/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/50/50
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/05