Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 Feb 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1045 (N23W01) produced
two M-class events during the past 24 hours. The first was a M1 at
06/2137Z and the second was a M6/1n at 07/0224Z. The SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery observed a CME off the east limb with the first event and a
full halo with the second event. The M6 x-ray event had an
associated EIT wave, and a Tenflare of 170sfu. This region has
retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration with a possible delta
magnetic configuration within its interior spots. A new region was
numbered today as Region 1046 (N25E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with M-class events likely. There is a slight chance
for a X-class event from Region 1045.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for the
next three days (08-10 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream and CME effects.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 090
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 092/094/094
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 010/010-008/009-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01