Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 Dec 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. An optically uncorrelated C2 flare occurred at 07/1000 UTC. Region 208 (N09W38) continues a gradual decay in area coverage and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. Region 214 (N13W55) has grown slightly in area coverage and developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Weak polarity mixing has developed in the intermediate area. No other significant changes on the visible disk were observed in the last twenty-four hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to coronal hole effects. Solar wind velocities reached peak values near 600 km/s at 07/0900 UTC and have stabilized near 550 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly positive resulting in only isolated active conditions. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active conditions on day one and day two of the forecast period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by day three. III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Dec 151 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 168 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 015/020-012/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/25/20 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
