Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 August 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1542 (S14E62) was the
most active region on the solar disk. This region produced seven
C-class x-ray flares, the largest of which was a C4/Sf flare that
occurred at 07/1330Z. A partial filament eruption occurred at
approximately 06/1830Z. An associated CME was visible on LASCO C2
imagery at 06/1900Z off the west limb, however no significant
impacts are expected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period at high latitudes from 07/0900-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance of isolated
active to minor storm intervals on days one and two (08 and 09 Aug).
This increase in activity is expected sometime between mid-day on
08 Aug to early on 09 Aug due to the arrival of the 04 Aug CME. Day
three (10 Aug) is expected to return to quiet levels as the effects
of the CME subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 129
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 007/010-011/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 30/25/05