Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 August 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only low level C-flares were
observed from Regions 1263 (N17W55) and 1267 (S17W00). Region 1263
exhibited motion and growth within its central and trailing spots;
merging of trailing spots with the central spots produced an
additional delta configuration in the group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. M-flares are likely and there is a slight chance
for an X-flare and/or proton event with Region 1263 as the most
likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speed
increased to 600 km/s at the beginning of the period and has been
slowly decreasing since approximately 06/2218Z. The solar sector
(phi angle) remained generally positive suggesting the presence of a
coronal hole high speed stream. The period ended with solar wind
speed around 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 August as the effects of the
high speed stream weaken. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on
09-10 August.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 105
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 100/095/085
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 014/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 008/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01