Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours.  The visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind
observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the continued
presence of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.  Velocities
varied between 450 km/s and 500 km/s during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (08 August).  For days two and three
(09-10 August), quiet to unsettled conditions with a slight chance
for isolated active periods are expected as the next recurrent
coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 068
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  005/005-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01