Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1105 (N19W64)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 06/1459Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. An isolated active
period occurred between 06/0300-0600Z. Solar wind, as measured at
the ACE spacecraft, indicated a 10 nT enhancement of the total field
with the Bz component reaching around -8 nT during the enhanced
activity interval. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the two days (07-08 September), and quiet
to unsettled on day three (09 September).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 080
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 079/079/078
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01