Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Sep 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A few C-class flares occurred,
most without corresponding optical reports. Regions 95 (N08W31) and
96 (S16W15) remain the largest sunspot groups on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 95 and 96 could each produce low-level M-class
activity. Old active Region 69 (S08, L=299) is expected to return at
the east limb within the three-day forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux has been slowly increasing over the past 20 hours,
apparently due to a backside event over the northwest limb. Current
proton flux is about 9 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours or so.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 8-9 September in
response to yesterday's long-duration C5 flare and eruptive
filament. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could cross the 10 pfu
event threshold within the next few hours but a large peak event
flux is not expected.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 40/50/50
Class X 01/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 178
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 185/190/200
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 008/010-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05