Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. An eruptive filament (N25E50) was observed lifting off the
solar disk at 06/0200Z. Initial observations by LASCO indicate a
partial-halo CME associated with the eruptive filament with speeds
around 160 km/s. The visible disk remains spotless. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (07-09 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet to unsettled
levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (07-09
October). The partial-halo CME observed earlier in the day does not
look to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 074
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 075/076/078
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01