Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1339 (N20E20)
produced two M-class flares during the period: an M1/Sf at 06/0103Z
and an M1/Sn at 06/0635Z associated with a weak Type II radio sweep.
No significant change was noted in Region 1393 as it remained a
large (1230 millionths), magnetically complex Fkc group with a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1338 (S14E02)
produced two C-class flares and showed minor spot growth in its
trailer portion. Newly numbered Region 1343 (N29E76) rotated into
view as an Hsx-type group. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (07 – 09 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or higher) from Region 1339. There will also
be a slight chance for a proton flare from Region 1339 during the
period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The proton flux
enhancement that began on 04 November continued to gradually
decrease, but was still slightly above background levels at the
close of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during the period (07 – 09 November).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 177
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 175/175/175
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01