Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at high levels. Region 1121 (S18W48)
produced an M5/1N flare at 06/1536Z. Associated with this event were
discrete radio emissions ranging from 4,995 MHz – 15,400 MHz, as
well as a 100 sfu Tenflare observed at 06/1534Z. Region 1121 was
classified as an Eai spot group with a beta magnetic classification.
Region 1120 (N41W13) continued to decay. New Region 1122 (N13W02)
was classified as a Cso spot group with a beta magnetic
classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. M-class flares are expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 November). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are
expected on days two and three (08-09 November).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 089
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01