Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N17W22) produced
the largest event of the period - a C9/Sf flare at 05/2201Z. This
region has shown some decay and has been relatively quiet since
producing the C9 flare. Region 180 (S10W01) continues to develop
both in size and complexity. It now exhibits one, maybe two, delta
configurations in a spot group exceeding 550 millionths of areal
coverage. Several C-class flare were observed in this region, the
largest being a C7/Sf at 0532Z. An associated Type II sweep (405
km/s) and CME were also observed, but the CME did not appear to be
earthward directed. Three new regions were numbered today, and two
of them - Region 187 (N07E07) and 188 (N11E22) produced minor
C-class flares late in the period. Region 189 (N12E56) was also
numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 180 will likely produce C and M-class activity.
Region 177 has potential for a small M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with minor storm
periods at high latitudes. High speed coronal hole effects with
persistent southward Bz are causing the disturbance. There are also
indications of a weak transient passage late in the period, which is
enhancing this disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active periods with occasional
minor, or even major storm periods at high latitudes.

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 185
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  190/190/190
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 177

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  012/015-008/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    11/06/02
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/35/25
Minor storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05