Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1206 (N22W60)
produced a B3 x-ray event at 06/0312Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for days one through three (07-09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on days one and two (07-08 May).
Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active
periods, is expected on day three (09 May). The increase in
activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream becoming geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 102
Predicted 07 May-09 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 06 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 005/005-005/005-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05