Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1226 (S22W52)
produced a few low-level C-class events. During the past 24 hours,
Region 1227 (S21W35) decayed from a D-type to an H-type spot group.
Region 1232 (N08E07) developed trailer spots to become a C-type from
an H-type spot group. A 12 degree long filament, centered near
N25W34, erupted during the period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery revealed
material movement along a large filament channel, first visible at
06/0441Z, which continued through about 06/0900Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days (07 – 09
June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much
beyond +/- 4 nT. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE
spacecraft, steadily declined through period from about 500 km/s to
near 420 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained enhanced through the period, reaching a maximum of
4.8 pfu at 06/0405Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(07 – 09 June).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 100
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 098/096/095
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 020/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01