Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 June 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1076 (S19W74) is
beginning to show signs of decay as it nears the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the next 2 days
(7-8 June). A very slight chance for a C-class flare exists on day 3
(9 June), after the sole region (1076) rotates off the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated period
of unsettled conditions between 05/21-06/00Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (7 June). Mostly unsettled to active
conditions with a possible isolated period of minor storming is
expected on day 2 (8 June). Conditions are expected to return to
mostly quiet to unsettled with the possiblility of an isolated
active period early on day 3 (9 June). The increase in activity is
due to a high speed stream from a coronal hole as well as the
possible arrival of a slow moving CME from 3 June.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 068
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 068/068/065
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 005/005-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/25
Minor storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor storm 10/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01