Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1243
(N15W46) produced a B2 flare at 05/2156Z. An approximately 23 degree
long filament centered near N25W60 was first observed lifting toward
the NW at approximately 06/1052Z. An associated CME was observed at
06/1048Z directed toward the NW on SOHO LASCO imagery. SOHO LASCO C2
showed an estimated plane of sky speed of about 573 km/s. The CME
did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 1243 continued to show
an increase in spots and area and was classified as a Dai group with
a Beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (07-09 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period between 06/0600-0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels, late on day one (07 July) and day two (08 July). The
increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream and a possible CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed
on LASCO C3 at 03/0142. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on
day three (09 July).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 085
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 084/082/084
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 008/008-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/15
Minor storm 05/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/40/20
Minor storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01