Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1024 (S27W26) produced
an isolated C1/Sf flare at 06/1705Z. Region 1024 showed minor decay
with loss of some intermediate spots, but retained a mix of
polarities near region center.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (07 – 08 July).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (09 July) due to an increase in solar wind velocities associated
with a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 070
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01