Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Jul 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
July 6, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jul 06 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the
past day was an M1 at 06/0342 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, SOHO EIT data suggests that the source was Region 17
from just behind the southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S17W21)
produced a C6/1N flare at 06/0938 UTC. This sunspot group appears to
have diminished slightly in complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 19 remains capable of C-class activity. An
isolated M-class flare in this region is also possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. ACE satellite data
confirms that a high-speed coronal hole stream is responsible for
the activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active as the coronal hole disturbance
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 40/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 134
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 132/132/130
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 015/015-015/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/50/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 60/60/40
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.