Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Jul 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jul 06 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the

past day was an M1 at 06/0342 UTC. Although no optical flare reports

were received, SOHO EIT data suggests that the source was Region 17

from just behind the southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S17W21)

produced a C6/1N flare at 06/0938 UTC. This sunspot group appears to

have diminished slightly in complexity.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. Region 19 remains capable of C-class activity. An

isolated M-class flare in this region is also possible.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. ACE satellite data

confirms that a high-speed coronal hole stream is responsible for

the activity.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be unsettled to active as the coronal hole disturbance

continues.

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul

Class M    40/30/30

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Jul 134

Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul  132/132/130

90 Day Mean        06 Jul 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  009/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  016/020

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  015/015-015/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                50/50/30

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                60/60/40

Minor storm           15/15/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01