Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest event of the period was a C2 flare at 06/1125Z
from Region 1392 (N19W32). A new emerging flux region was numbered
today as Region 1394 (N18E42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (07-09 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind characteristics, as measured by the ACE
spacecraft, indicate the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) with solar wind speeds increasing from around 330 – 450
km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (07-08
January) as the effects the CH HSS wane. A return to mostly quiet
levels is expected on day three (09 January).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 136
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 009/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/15
Minor storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01