Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels during the
period. Regions 1140 (N33W11) and 1142 (S14W32) were quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at predominately very low levels, with a chance for C-class
activity, during the forecast period (07 – 09 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. At approximately
06/1600Z, observations from the ACE satellite indicated a
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) had arrived. Increases in
density and wind velocity coupled with positive to negative
flucuations in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
were indicative of a CIR in advance of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels all three
days of the forecast period (07 – 09 January). Isolated active to
minor storm intervals are possible on 08 and 09 January. A recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream has rotated into a geoeffective
position and is expected to influence Earth’s magnetic field during
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 087
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 088/086/086
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 007/007-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01