Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 January 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1039 has rotated
off the disk. A B5 x-ray event was observed at 06/1953Z from a new
region that is just rotating onto the visible disk on the NE limb.
Bright surging was also correlated with this event. Due to its
current limb position, no spots have yet been observed in the
region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft show solar wind velocities averaging around 330 km/s with
fluctuations in the IMF Bz of +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (07-09
January).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 077
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 077/078/078
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/01/01
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/01/01
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01