Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (07-09 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been predominantly unsettled with an
isolated active period from 06/0600Z-0900Z. This enhanced activity
is due to the effects of a waning coronal hole high-speed stream (CH
HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (07 February) as the
effects of a CH HSS continue to wane. Predominantly quiet levels are
expected on days two and three (08-09 February).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 080
Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 080/078/078
90 Day Mean 06 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01