Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Feb 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A new region emerged at a
rapid pace today and was numbered Region 1045 (N24E15). The region
produced several C-class events and a M2/Sn event at 06/1859Z. The
region has grown to around 290 millionths of white light area
coverage with a magnetic beta-gamma configuration and a possible
delta magnetic configuration within its interior spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions, and a
slight chance for isolated minor storming for the next three days
(07-09 February). The increase in activity is expected due to CME
activity from 02-03 February and a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 088
Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 090/092/094
90 Day Mean 06 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 012/012-012/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05