Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours. Region 1132 decayed to spotless plage.
Regions 1131 (N31E15) and Region 1133 (N16E43) were both quiet,
unipolar, alpha type groups. A large filament erupted from the
southeast quadrant of the visible solar disk beginning at
approximately 1535Z. This eruption was seen in SDO imagery and by
ground based observers. The associated CME was observed in the
STEREO ahead COR2 imagery beginning at approximately 1909Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low. There is a slight chance for C-class x-ray events for the
next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A sector boundary change was
observed at the ACE spacecraft beginning at approximately 1750Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the first two days of the forecast
period (07-08 Dec). A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to become geoeffective near the end of day 3 (9 December)
bringing a chance for unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 089
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 089/089/087
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01