Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1093 (N12E45) produced a
C1 flare at 2135Z. New region 1095 (S19E34) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Regions 1093
and 1094 (N26W71).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at 06/0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet with an isolated chance of unsettled
levels during the next three days (07 – 09 August).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 082
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 084/084/082
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01