Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Aug 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
August 6, 2009
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours.  The visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Solar wind observations
from the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a high-speed stream
from a recurrent coronal hole.  Velocities increased from around 380
km/s to 520 km/s with +/- 13 nT fluctuations in the IMF Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods for day one (07 August) as the recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream remains geoeffective.  Quiet conditions are
expected on day two (08 August).  Quiet to unsettled conditions with
a slight chance for isolated active periods are expected for day
three (09 August) due to the next recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 067
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  007/007-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/10/30
Minor storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.