Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Aug 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Aug 06 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.

Newly assigned Region 63 (N17E73) produced an M1 event at 05/2122

UTC. The group also produced a C7/1n at 1259 UTC. Region 57 (S08W66)

continues to be the largest group on the disk and produced a C8/1f

at 0144 UTC and a C7/Sf at 1527 UTC. The group exhibited frequent

surging and brightenings throughout the day, but the spots appear to

be simplifying somewhat. Region 61 (N09E41) showed some growth today

and produced a couple low-level C-class events. A filament near

S42W40 erupted today: the material started to rise in EIT195 images

around 1600 UTC and was visible as a CME in LASCO C2 at 1825 UTC.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate for the next three days. The most likely sources for

flare activity are Regions 57, 61, and 63.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24

hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be unsettled to slightly active for the next two days as

a coronal hole rotates into a favorable position. Conditions should

subside to mostly unsettled by the third day.

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug

Class M    35/35/35

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Aug 145

Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug  140/140/135

90 Day Mean        06 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  004/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  006/009

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  012/015-015/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/40/35

Minor storm           20/25/20

Major-severe storm    05/10/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/35/30

Minor storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    05/10/05