Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Aug 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
August 6, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Aug 06 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Newly assigned Region 63 (N17E73) produced an M1 event at 05/2122
UTC. The group also produced a C7/1n at 1259 UTC. Region 57 (S08W66)
continues to be the largest group on the disk and produced a C8/1f
at 0144 UTC and a C7/Sf at 1527 UTC. The group exhibited frequent
surging and brightenings throughout the day, but the spots appear to
be simplifying somewhat. Region 61 (N09E41) showed some growth today
and produced a couple low-level C-class events. A filament near
S42W40 erupted today: the material started to rise in EIT195 images
around 1600 UTC and was visible as a CME in LASCO C2 at 1825 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. The most likely sources for
flare activity are Regions 57, 61, and 63.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active for the next two days as
a coronal hole rotates into a favorable position. Conditions should
subside to mostly unsettled by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 145
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/35
Minor storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.