Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 September 2012
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S14E01 –
Esi/beta-gamma) produced occasional C-class flares including a C6 at
05/0347Z and a C7/Sn at 05/0806Z, neither of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 1564 showed gradual spot and
penumbral decay during the period, but retained a beta-gamma
configuration due to polarity mixing in the vicinity of its
intermediate spots. Region 1560 (N04W58 – Eai/beta-gamma-delta)
showed minor spot loss in its trailer portion during the period. It
retained a delta within its intermediate spots, but the delta
appeared to be dissipating. The remaining spotted region were
unremarkable. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME
activity occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (06 – 08 September) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare during days 1 – 2.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels
with a brief period of severe storm levels at high latitudes. An
interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 04/2203Z
indicating the arrival of the CMEs observed on 02 September. Field
activity increased to major storm levels during 05/0000 – 0300Z
following the shock, then decreased to minor storm levels during
05/0300 – 0600Z. A further decrease to active levels occurred during
05/0300 – 0900Z. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred during the rest
of the period with active to minor storm levels detected at high
latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (06 –
08 September) with a chance for active levels on day 1 due to
possible weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 25/25/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 133
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 021/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/010-007/008-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/10
