Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 September 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1286 (N20W86) produced M1 x-ray flares at 05/0428Z and 05/0758Z as it approached the west limb. Region 1286 also produced a long-duration C7 x-ray flare at 05/0037Z associated with a non-Earth-directed CME. An eruption occurred along a filament channel in the northeast quadrant at around 05/0230Z and was associated with a slow, non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1283 (N14W04) showed minor changes during the period and was classified as an Eai group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1288 was numbered as a small Bxo group with a simple beta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (06 – 08 September). There will be a chance for an M-class flare from Region 1286 on 06 September. There will be a slight chance for an M-class flare during 07 – 08 September from Region 1283.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (06 – 08 September).

III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 20/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 119
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01