Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 September 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
September 5, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 1101 (N13W88) and
1105 (N19W52) produced several B-class events during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be low
for the next 3 days (6-8 September) with a chance for C-class
events and a slight chance for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to range from quiet to active conditions for days 1-2
(06-07 September). Conditions are forecast to return to quiet
conditions on day 3 (08 September).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 082
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 001/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.