Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A long duration (7.5
hours) B7 x-ray event was observed at 05/0730Z. Post eruption loop
structures were observed in GOES SXI imagery beginning at
approximately 05/0328Z in the vicinity of Region 1584 (S22W40)
shortly after the beginning of the B7 flare at 05/0317Z. A partial
halo CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 05/0730Z and
STEREO A COR2 imagery at 05/0409Z with an estimated plane-of-sky
speed at 590 km/s. WSA-ENLIL model indicates this Earth-directed
CME to become geoeffective late on 08 October.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels with the chance for a C-class flare during the
forecast period (06-08 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-2 (06-07 October). Late on
day 3 (08 October), today’s CME is expected to become geoeffective
causing unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storm
periods.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 106
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 006/005-006/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20