Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1339 (N19E31)
produced three M-class events during the past 24 hours, the largest
of which was an M3/1F at 0335Z. The other two M flares were an M1 at
1121Z and another M1 at 2038Z. Region 1339 continues to be the
dominant group on the disk but showed a slight decrease in area and
magnetic complexity. Nonetheless the group is still large (about
1190 millionths) and still has at least two magnetic delta
configurations. New Region 1340 (S09E61) was assigned and is a
simple H-type sunspot group. White light imagery from SDO show two
significant spot groups rotating around east limb at about 9 degrees
north and 17 degrees north. These are assigned NOAA Region numbers
1341 and 1342 respectively. The proximity of these regions to the
limb makes it difficult to assess their size and complexity at this
time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate but with a slight chance for major flare activity (M5 or
higher). In addition, as Region 1339 rotates closer to central
meridian there will also be a slight chance for a proton producing
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The proton
enhancement that began on 04 October continued to show decreasing
flux but was still slightly elevated above background levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 172
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 175/175/175
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01