Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate Levels. Region 1121
(S18E58) produced two M-class flares. An M1/Sf event occurred at
04/2358Z, and a long duration M1 event occurred at 05/1329Z. Region
1121 was classified as a Cro spot group with a beta magnetic
classification. However, limb proximity prevented a detailed
analysis of the region. Region 1120 (N38W09) continued to show
decreases in both areal coverage and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. M-class events remain likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for days one and two
(06-07 November). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (08 November).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 083
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 084/085/086
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/08/01