Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. New Region 1476
(N09E67) produced several C-class flares along with an M1/Sn at
05/1329Z. The region’s proximity to the limb makes spot
classification difficult, however, it is currently considered a
Dko-beta type group. Region 1469 (S26W77) continues to produce low
level C-class activity as it rotates around the west limb. A model
run was completed after the forecast was issued yesterday to include
the CME observed off the southwest limb yesterday. It was determined
that the CME has a slight Earth-directed component. A second CME,
first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 05/0309Z, appeared to be
associated with a C1 flare from Region 1469 observed at 04/2350Z.
Although both CMEs have a weak Earth-directed component, neither are
expected to cause significant geomagnetic activity. A third CME
associated with a C2/Sf flare from Region 1470 (S15W31) observed at
05/0639Z, first became visible in SDO AIA imagery at approximately
05/0600Z. Due to the source location, it is probable that the CME is
Earth-directed and a model run is currently in progress to determine
geoeffectiveness.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days (06-08
May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (06 May). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are possible on days two and three (07-08 May) due to
weak effects from the CMEs observed on 04 May.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 116
Predicted 06 May-08 May 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 05 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 006/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01