Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 05 2219 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2011
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IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1204 (N17W00) produced a B8 x-ray event at 05/1756Z. New
Region 1207 (N24E40) was numbered today as a simple bi-polar group.
The remaining active regions were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days one through three (06-08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the solar wind
speed remained steady at about 400 km/s during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one through three (06-08
May).
III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 105
Predicted 06 May-08 May 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 05 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 005/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01