Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 May 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
May 5, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1069 (N41W40) produced an M1/Sf flare at 05/1719Z and a C8 flare at
05/1152Z, as well as occasional lesser B- and C-class flares. Region
1069 gradually increased in area and maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 1066 (S26W22) produced a B4 flare at
05/1618Z associated with an EIT-wave/dimming event. New Region 1070
(N21W08), a small simple B-type spot group, was assigned late in the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 – 3 (06 – 08 May) with a chance for isolated M-class
flares from Region 1069.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained within
a subsiding coronal hole high-speed stream. Velocities gradually
decreased from 620 to 538 km/sec during the summary period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (06 – 07
May) as the coronal hole high-speed stream continues to subside.
Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3
(08 May) in response to the B4 wave/dimming event mentioned above.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 083
Predicted 06 May-08 May 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 05 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/20
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.