Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1163 (N17W51), 1164
(N24W34) and Region 1165 (S21W52) produced several low level C-class
flares during the last 24 hours. Region 1164 and 1166 (N10E41) have
both continued to grow in white light areal coverage and spot count.
Region 1164 is a Fkc type spot group and has maintained its
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1166 is a Eki type
spot group and has formed a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Observations from
the ACE spacecraft indicate very little influence is left from the
coronal hole high speed stream which has dominated for the past five
days. Solar wind speeds are now averaging below 500 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active conditions, and a slight chance for minor storm periods at
high latitudes, for the next two days (06-07 March). The activity
is expected due to the possible arrival of the CME observed on 03
March. Predominately quiet conditions are expected to return on day
three (08 March).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 135
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/05
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01