Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1499 (N15E17) produced the largest x-ray event of the period with a
C4/2f at 05/2059Z. New Region 1503 (N11W38) was numbered today and
is considered a Bxo-beta type spot group. No Earth-directed CME’s
were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (06-08 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to continued effects from a favorably positioned coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds increased from
approximately 650 km/s to 750 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) Bt remained stable at about 8 nT. The Bz component of
the IMF varied between +6 and -7 nT but held steady at approximately
-5 nT for the last 2 hours of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with active periods likely on day one (06
June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled
conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected
on days two and three (07-08 June) as the CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 139
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 014/018-011/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 55/40/30