Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Several
low-level B-class flares occurred during the period from Regions
1242 (N18, L=056) and 1243 (N16W34). Region 1243 showed an increase
in spots and area and was classified as a Cso-beta group. Region
1244 (N15W67) showed a decrease in spots and area and was classified
as a Dso group with a Beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (06-08 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Minor storm
levels were observed between 05/0300-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 July). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, are expected late on
day two (07 July) and day three (08 July). The increase in activity
is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and a possible
CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed on LASCO C3 at
03/0142Z.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 085
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 084/083/080
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 007/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/005-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/35
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/40
Minor storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05