Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1024
(S27W13) produced a C2/Sf flare at 05/0713Z, as well as frequent
B-class flares. Minor changes were observed in the region since its
rapid emergence yesterday. It retained a beta magnetic structure
with some polarity mixing evident in its intermediate spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is also a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1024.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels throughout the forecast period (06 –
08 July).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 072
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01