Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 Jul 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jul 05 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z

to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W89)

produced an M3/Sf flare at 05/1326 UTC. This flare was associated

with a Type II/IV radio sweep and an apparent CME directed off the

southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S18W08) produced a C6/Sf flare at

05/1556 UTC. This region, as well as Region 21 (S29W21), also

produced a number of other subflares. New Region 26 (N24W58) emerged

on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

moderate. Regions 17 and 19 remain the most likely source of M-class

flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated

active periods. An equatorial coronal hole is expected to influence

activity levels over the next few days.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul

Class M    50/40/40

Class X    05/01/01

Proton     05/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Jul 139

Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  135/130/130

90 Day Mean        05 Jul 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  004/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  012/009

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  010/015-010/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/30/30

Minor storm           15/15/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01