Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours with two C-class events observed. The first C-class
flare was from Region 1390 (N09W71), which had an associated Type II
radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 695 km/s. Due to the
location of this region, and the lack of a CME in imagery, no Earth
impacts are expected. The second C-class flare was a long duration
C2 flare at 05/1238Z from an eruptive filament channel, located
around Region 1392 (N21W19). The associated CME can be seen in
STEREO ahead and behind imagery and is not expected to impact
Earth. Finally, a new Region emerged on the disk early in the period
and was numbered as Region 1393 (N18W03).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (06 – 08 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. From 05/1200-1500Z, the mid latitudes observed
unsettled conditions while an isolated period at minor storm levels
was observed at high latitudes. This small increase in activity was
due to a sustained period of the negative Bz component of the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the
ACE spacecraft, fluctuated around 340 km/s throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (06 January),
unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm
levels at high latitudes on day two (07 January) and predominantly
unsettled levels on day three (08 January). The increase in activity
is due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 141
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/008-014/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 20/35/10
Major-severe storm 10/40/01